Friday 9 December 2016

Global Warming — A Brief Survey

Image credit.


Typically, (the habitual horror) scenarios of global warming are couched in terms of CO2 being the immediate causal driver of the temperature trend. In truth, CO2 is a subordinate contributor, even according to the alarmists' models, in which vapour-related feedback mechanisms are acting as a far more powerful amplifier of warming. The important role of this presumed positive feedback is not reflected in public debate (which entirely focuses on the simplistic CO2 story) and unsurprisingly, the evidence that shows predicted amplification is not taking place is hardly mentioned in the media.

Put differently: it is not the direct effect of CO2 that gives rise to the (as it turns out highly exaggerated) projections of rising temperatures (that we have been bombarded with since the late 1980s), but the amplifying forces assumed to operate in the underlying (alarmist) models. The assumptions of the models are not borne out by evidence which, instead, tends to show a dampening effect of the climate system on greenhouse warming, rather than runaway amplification:



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